Theoretical Frameworks
Professor Jiang builds his analysis on a set of interlocking “laws” - structural patterns he identifies across history. These aren’t laws in the scientific sense; they’re recurring dynamics that shape how power, conflict, and civilization operate.
Core Laws
Power and Conflict
- law-of-asymmetry - Why the weaker side often wins. Raw power is less important than strategic flexibility.
- law-of-escalation - Why wars always expand beyond their intended scope. Escalation has its own logic.
- cost-pyramid - The hidden economics of military force. Why expensive weapons lose to cheap ones.
- law-of-proximity - Nations prioritize threats closest to home. Distance erodes commitment.
Systems and Cycles
- universal-law-of-game-theory - The meta-framework: all actors are rational within their own game, but games are nested.
- engineered-boom-bust-cycles - Financial crashes aren’t accidents - they’re harvesting mechanisms.
- price-hierarchy - Not all prices are equal. Energy prices cascade through everything else.
Perception and Ideology
- platos-cave-analogy - Most people see shadows of reality, not reality itself. Media, education, and institutions maintain the cave.
- elite-overproduction - Too many elites competing for too few positions destabilizes societies.
- law-of-eschatological-convergence - When multiple civilizations’ end-times prophecies align with geopolitical incentives, the prophecies become self-fulfilling.
How These Connect
The frameworks aren’t isolated tools - they form a system. The universal-law-of-game-theory sits at the top as a meta-framework. law-of-asymmetry and law-of-escalation explain military outcomes. engineered-boom-bust-cycles and price-hierarchy explain economic outcomes. law-of-eschatological-convergence and platos-cave-analogy explain why actors behave in ways that seem irrational until you understand their worldview.
The through-line: what appears chaotic is actually structural. Events that look random reveal patterns once you apply the right framework.